The World in 2012: What's Next?

The Atlantic website posted an interesting, and fascinating, list of foreign policy events to keep an eye on 2012.  One event missing from the list is the 2012 Olympics, which set up to show off Great Britain, still separate from the European Union and smarting from this year's riots, to the world once again. In a sense it may be the last hurrah for the British on the world stage, as 2014 and 2016 will focus the world's eyes on the rising power of Brazil.

What is most concerning about the list, however, is what is NOT on it. After all, a year ago how many people predicted the Arab Spring, or Occupy Wall Street? As the world focuses attention on America's presidential race, the upheaval in the Arab world, the potential collapse (or salvation) of the Eurozone, and revolutionary zeal reaching even Russia and China, the potential of the unknown is out there as well.

One last note: Syria's slide into civil war needs to be noted again here. It's featured on The Atlantic's list, but isn't getting nearly the kind of press coverage it deserves. Syria being unstable effects Lebanon, as well as the Israel-Palestine crisis. Not to mention the fact that Iran may lose a valuable ally in that part of the Arab world.

Speaking of Iran, it seems everyone has forgotten about their nuclear program. Well, almost everyone. Iran's program continues, and it may be reaching a point of no return soon. And when I mean soon, I mean in 2012.

And with such a situation, President Obama will be caught in a difficult dilemma:

For the time being, Israel is not needling Mr. Obama. Rather the opposite.

“We are asked, sometimes,” Mr. Barak has said, “whether Obama is really a soft appeaser.” His answer: “You discern a man who is capable and ready to take on the fiercest of political risks in order to make good what he believes in.” He added, “Go ask Osama bin Laden.”

That’s not as unsubtle flattery as it might seem.

The remarks are aimed at voters to raise the bar of expectations for Mr. Obama’s support of Israel on Iran. The dynamics of the campaign mean he will most likely have to provide Americans with an unequivocal orientation well before November — the same likelihood and time frame Mr. Perkovich sees for Iran “to take steps, albeit insufficient ones, to indicate there’s some traction in the diplomatic approach.”

That's from the New York Times piece linked above. The election campaign next year, while about domestic economic issues, may very well pivot on foreign policy crises, and how President Obama has (and will handle) them.

May you live in interesting times, indeed.