Don't Look West, Young Man....Look South

News from Iowa in the last two months has been as topsy turvy a political story as anyone has seen in years. While Mitt Romney has stayed near the top, the GOP has seen several front runners come and go: Rick Perry, Herman Cain, and most recently Newt Gingrich. Ron Paul has rallied his supporters in the last two weeks, and now it appears that the oft-forgotten Rick Santorum is seeing a surge of his own in poll numbers.


While on the web and among talking heads, the discussion has been about Iowa being a chance to Ron Paul to steal the show, for Newt Gingrich's campaign to take a serious hit, and for the disaster known as Rick Perry to continue to careen out of control, I really don't think any of this matters. Remember that Mike Hukabee won Iowa in 2008, and look at where his campaign ended. After all, the real test is in South Carolina.

That's right: the heart of Southern Conservatism, South Carolina, is the real test for any GOP candidate. Consider this: since 1980, in years when it was an open and contested primary, whoever has won South Carolina has won the Republican Party's nomination. And it's also worth noting that, while South Carolina voters are very, very conservative, they also tend to be pragmatic in their choices. According to South Carolina political observers, the state's GOP is torn between traditional Republicans and Tea Party conservatives.

At this moment, Gingrich leads in South Carolina. He knows the importance of winning here as does Romney and the other candidates.Of course voters in the state know it too. But will they go with their hearts, which means anyone but Romney? Or with their heads, and back a man who they may not trust but gives them the best chance of defeating President Obama?

I suspect the latter. But time will tell. If Romney stumbles in both Iowa AND New Hampshire, then all bets are off.