Tet 2.0?

Juan Cole:

"One local Afghan newspaper was left puzzling as to the purpose of these attacks, which, like those in Baghdad, likely have not hope of tactical success. The article speculates that the Taliban are trying to keep the US boots on the ground, just as President Hamid Karzai is, so as to extract strategic rent from the ongoing Western presence in Afghanistan. That is, some allege that the attacks in Kabul were motivated by a desire to draw the US into a longer-term occupation, so that the Taliban can be assured of having someone to fight. (Seems unlikely to me, but interesting that it appeared in the Afghan press. And, I don’t think it would work. Most Americans, even Republicans, want out, and I think most US troops will be out by 2014…)"

Taliban attacks on Afghan and Coalition forces are becoming increasingly more brazen. This past weekend the group launched a series of coordinated attacks in Kabul. The attacks caused minimal damage and were quickly repelled, but worries remain. The purpose of the attacks may have been more about winning the media war than winning the war on the ground. Kabul, the capital, was once thought to be the only "safe" place in Afghanistan. So safe in fact, that US and NATO forces handed over security to Afghanistan in 2008. But not anymore. Using tactics that are reminiscent of 1968 Tet Offensive, the Taliban are starting to attack places once thought to be untouchable. The more brazen the attack, the more headlines it gets back in the U.S., and the more likely we are to sue for peace. It's a strategy that worked for the Viet Cong and it may very well work again.

Perhaps Another "First" For President Obama?

The first polls portraying a head to head matchup between Mitt Romney and Barack Obama are out. They vary, as is expected, with the CNN poll giving the incumbent president a good, but not insurmountable, lead, while the Gallup poll gives Mitt Romney a slight lead that's within the margin of error.

The most important news, however, is that President Obama is the first incumbent to trail in the poll at this point in the election since 1976. However, some pundits have pointed out that, for example, Jimmy Carter led Ronald Reagan at this point in 1980 (in fact he led until a week before the election) and George H.W. Bush led Bill Clinton at this point in 1992. And even looking at 1976, Gerald Ford almost pulled off a stunning comeback against then-challenger Jimmy Carter.


Of course, national opinion polls have to be considered in context of the Electoral College. President Obama's actually doing better there, leading in most key battleground states at this point. With the disparate polling results, it's begged the question on  The Atlantic.com of whether President Obama will become the first incumbent president re-elected without winning a majority of the popular vote. One could easily see the scenario of President Obama winning a tough re-election fight, the Democrats taking back the House (or at least cutting into the GOP margin) and the Democrats losing the Senate. Essentially, neither party would have much of a mandate.


But we've got a long way to go yet.

Obama Starting a Rap Beef?

The Atlantic:

“Although I like Kanye,” Obama continues, with an easy smile. “He’s a Chicago guy. Smart. He’s very talented.” He is displaying his larger awareness of the question, looking relaxed, cerebral but friendly, alive to the moment, waiting for me to get to the heart of the matter. 

“Even though you called him a jackass?,” I ask. 

“He is a jackass,” Obama says, in his likable and perfectly balanced modern-professorial voice. “But he’s talented.” The president gives a wink, poses for a few more pictures, and then glides away to meet with the rich Manhattan lawyers in the other room, leaving behind a verdict that he intended to be funny, and also entirely deliberate: even before an audience of one, the leader of the free world is still not letting Kanye West off the hook.

The Most Violent Place On Earth

Honduras according to the Council on Foreign Relations:

The primary force behind the high homicide rates [in central America] is increasing transnational criminal activity, fueled by the region’s strategic location between the major drug producers in Latin America and the illicit drug markets in the United States. Moreover, Central American governments either lack the capability or the will to confront the many security and governance challenges posed by drug trafficking organizations. 

Who seriously thinks that the drug war is working?

Now The General Election Begins

Today Rick Santorum suspended his campaign. It was a wise move on his part, considering that the GOP establishment is clearly behind Mitt Romney, he's lost the last few states decisively, and most importantly, his daughter is still recovering after being in the hospital for a chromosomal disorder.

So it's Romney vs. Obama. And yes, I'm aware Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul haven't officially ended their campaigns, but they were also-rans weeks ago. The race this year has a 2004 in reverse vibe, featuring a major party endorsing  a candidate they aren't totally in love with (John Kerry in 2004, Romney in 2012) over a candidate who captured their ideological heart (Howard Dean in 2004, Rick Santorum in 2012).

The 2004 is also very similar in this sense: both campaigns feature an incumbent president reviled by the opposition party, seeming to stand for everything they fight against. Both Presidents Bush and Obama polarized the nation. Was it their fault? Depends on who you ask. But right now, President Obama will have the fight of his political night this fall. Everyone says that Obama's going to win, but if they believe that then they've ignored the instability of American politics since 1992. Barack Obama won the closest thing to a mandate in 2008, but due to the economy, battles over the stimulus, and the health care debate, it quickly washed away under the Tea Party tide. Right now the president is throwing red meat to his base with the "Buffett Rule" on taxes for the rich, but sometimes I wonder if that will be enough. Against Mitt Romney, who has had issues connecting with independent voters, it may be.

Question is, will Tea Party members be as engaged to fight for Mitt Romney as they were for the Congress in 2010? And what about the Democratic base? It all remains to be seen how it will go.

Politics of Fear

Disturbing new video from the Rick Santorum campaign. Once again Republicans have decided to double-down on fear. Republicans are trying to scare voters to the voting booth with lies and deceit. While President Obama talks about progress and recovery; the Republican candidates conger up images of the apocalypse. You'll even notice around the 0:39 mark that there is a quick juxtaposition of President Obama with Mahmoud Ahmadinejad that surely wasn't an accident. Watching this video, you would of thought it was still late 2008, when the economy was hemorrhaging 500,000 jobs a month. This is far disconnected from the reality that we have experienced 24 consecutive months of job growth for a grand total of 3.7 million jobs. No mention of the fact that President Obama saved the Detroit Auto Industry from the brink of oblivion. No mention of the fact that President Obama has lowered taxes even more than Ronald Reagan ever did. Instead we get the same old lies and fear that we've heard about the President for the past four years. It smacks of desperation. The closer we get to November, the less I become concerned about Barack Obama's reelection. Santorum's campaign is finally running out of steam and this is one last desperate hail mary before the clock runs out.

What Does Trayvon Martin Say About America?

Unless you've been hiding under a rock or just don't give a damn, you've heard about the murder of Trayvon Martin. Let us briefly pause and consider the facts, one more time:

Mr. Martin happened to be walking through a gated community when George Zimmerman, member of a local Neighborhood Watch Association (although recently it has been discovered isn't an official Neighborhood Watch group) spotted the young African American male walking. Mr. Zimmerman then placed a call to the 911 dispatcher, fearing the worst after seeing this person in his neighborhood.

Despite being told by the dispatcher to not follow the young man, Mr. Zimmerman proceeded to do so. The rest, sadly, has become history. When the histories of the "post-racial" era are written decades from now, they'll have to include this incident.

It has become a symbol of a sickness that has gripped America since the first slaves were brought to the shores of Virginia in 1619. But this sickness, the scourge of racism, discrimination, intolerance, and stereotyping has taken many forms in the last 400 years. Today it is particularly insidious because it exists alongside America electing a man of African descent to the presidency.

As an example, take the police investigation. The investigation has not been the local police department's finest hour. Were they just lazy? Incompetent? Or is this also an example of racism, in this case not really caring that the suspect killed was black? I don't know, although I must be honest my guts says more laziness and incompetence more than anything else. Which, in itself, is troublesome.

At that time, in November of 2008, I was filled with optimism about the future of race relations in America. Let me be clear: race relations now are better than they've probably ever been in American history. But they're not good enough. Not by a long shot. It may not be that Mr. Zimmerman is a racist (although the tapes indicate he used a racial slur when describing Mr. Martin) but it doesn't matter. At its basest, most visceral level, this incident, like so many others, proves that the life of a young black man in America---hell, any black man or woman in America---just doesn't seem to have the value it deserves.


I'm tired of that being the norm. And I hope you are too.