Election 2012: Going Global

Washington Post columnist Eugene Robinson (one of my favorites) makes an astute observation that this year's election campaign may depend as much on overseas events as on domestic concerns about the economy:

It may not be the economy, stupid.

Then again, James Carville’s famous maxim about the 1992 presidential campaign might well be valid in 2012. But it’s quite possible that on Election Day, voters’ most urgent concerns — economic or not — will be driven by overseas events that neither President Obama nor his Republican opponent can predict or control.

Robinson notes Afghanistan, Korea, Syria, Iran, and events in Europe as potential pitfalls for both the President and Governor Romney. While overseas events have had major impact on presidential campaigns (1940, 1948, 1968, 1980, and 2004 come to mind with varying degrees of impact), 2012 presents so many different international issues that trying to predict the election right now is a fool's errand.

Bruins' Thomas Taunted With Obama Signs

Tim Thomas Taunted With Obama Signs By Capitals Fans:

Despite being named Stanley Cup MVP, Thomas refused to join his team in D.C. when Obama honored the Bruins, citing political issues. In a statement posted on Facebook, 

Thomas said he believes the federal government "has grown out of control" but also wrote that he blames both political parties.
Before the playoffs began, Thomas abruptly ended a media session when a question was asked about the skipping out on Obama. 

Capitals fans didn't let him off the hook that easily. In honor of Thomas' White House snub, several Caps bloggers coordinated a fan effort to revisit the story and taunt him with pictures of Obama's face and posters depicting the president (some which were gigantic).

This is the first time I've seen a political form of taunt from sports fans. I know certain hooligan and ultra groups in Europe and South America have either extreme left-wing or right-wing ideologies, but I've never seen American fans overtly using politics to taunt a player or team. Is this a symptom of the polarization of today's politics? Or is it just a clever prank?

Perhaps Another "First" For President Obama?

The first polls portraying a head to head matchup between Mitt Romney and Barack Obama are out. They vary, as is expected, with the CNN poll giving the incumbent president a good, but not insurmountable, lead, while the Gallup poll gives Mitt Romney a slight lead that's within the margin of error.

The most important news, however, is that President Obama is the first incumbent to trail in the poll at this point in the election since 1976. However, some pundits have pointed out that, for example, Jimmy Carter led Ronald Reagan at this point in 1980 (in fact he led until a week before the election) and George H.W. Bush led Bill Clinton at this point in 1992. And even looking at 1976, Gerald Ford almost pulled off a stunning comeback against then-challenger Jimmy Carter.


Of course, national opinion polls have to be considered in context of the Electoral College. President Obama's actually doing better there, leading in most key battleground states at this point. With the disparate polling results, it's begged the question on  The Atlantic.com of whether President Obama will become the first incumbent president re-elected without winning a majority of the popular vote. One could easily see the scenario of President Obama winning a tough re-election fight, the Democrats taking back the House (or at least cutting into the GOP margin) and the Democrats losing the Senate. Essentially, neither party would have much of a mandate.


But we've got a long way to go yet.