Monday, April 16, 2012

Tet 2.0?

Juan Cole:
"One local Afghan newspaper was left puzzling as to the purpose of these attacks, which, like those in Baghdad, likely have not hope of tactical success. The article speculates that the Taliban are trying to keep the US boots on the ground, just as President Hamid Karzai is, so as to extract strategic rent from the ongoing Western presence in Afghanistan. That is, some allege that the attacks in Kabul were motivated by a desire to draw the US into a longer-term occupation, so that the Taliban can be assured of having someone to fight. (Seems unlikely to me, but interesting that it appeared in the Afghan press. And, I don’t think it would work. Most Americans, even Republicans, want out, and I think most US troops will be out by 2014…)"

Taliban attacks on Afghan and Coalition forces are becoming increasingly more brazen. This past weekend the group launched a series of coordinated attacks in Kabul. The attacks caused minimal damage and were quickly repelled, but worries remain. The purpose of the attacks may have been more about winning the media war than winning the war on the ground. Kabul, the capital, was once thought to be the only "safe" place in Afghanistan. So safe in fact, that US and NATO forces handed over security to Afghanistan in 2008. But not anymore. Using tactics that are reminiscent of 1968 Tet Offensive, the Taliban are starting to attack places once thought to be untouchable. The more brazen the attack, the more headlines it gets back in the U.S., and the more likely we are to sue for peace. It's a strategy that worked for the Viet Cong and it may very well work again.

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