Repeating History

Pew Research: Record Support For Afghanistan Troop Withdrawl

For the first time since Pew Research began asking the question in 2008, a majority (56 percent) now say they want the U.S. to remove American troops from Afghanistan "as soon as possible," while 39 percent say they they want to leave troops "until the situation has stabilized." That result represents a reversal since last year, when leaving the troops in place was preferred by a majority of 53 percent to 40 percent.

With news that President Obama will be addressing the nation on Wednesday night about Afghanistan there is speculation out there that a troop withdrawal could be announced. Last week it was reported that the US State Department is talking directly with the Taliban, possibly seeking a peace deal. The 10 year old war is becoming increasingly unpopular with the American public. At best the war has become a stalemate, at worst a quagmire. The death of Osama Bin Laden last month has given the Obama Administration sufficient political cover to start discussing an accelerated drawdown of troops from Afghanistan. As reported in the Bob Woodward book Obama's Wars, Obama wants to withdraw from Afghanistan by the time he leaves office. He's keenly aware of what the Vietnam War did to Lyndon Johnson's legacy and desperately wants to avoid that same fate. There are certain factions within his administration, most notably the Pentagon and State Department, that are weary of a withdrawal. But with the retirement of Robert Gates as Secretary of Defense and the pending departure of Hillary Clinton as Secretary of State if Obama wins a second term; institutional resistance to a withdrawal won't nearly be as strong. 


My best guess is that we'll see a Vietnam-like peace deal that includes a withdrawal of a majority of NATO troops from the country. The moderate factions of the Taliban will allowed to participate in government in exchange for disarmament. I think we will still keep certain military bases open such as Bagram in order to keep an eye on neighboring Pakistan and for strategic reasons. I'd imagine that the CIA will also continue to have a large presence in the country so that the U.S. can continue to conduct Drone attacks along the border region. But of course convincing the Taliban to accept a peace deal can be a tall task. They've rejected previous overtures by the U.S. government for peace talks. It's hard for me to imagine that they would accept any deal where foreign troops remain in the country. My gut feeling on this is that by 2016 there won't be any U.S. troops in Afghanistan.