Being Held Hostage

Andrew Sullivan writes about the debt ceiling talks going on in Congress:

What you probably cannot do is negotiate with economic equivalent of terrorists. What Cantor and Boehner are doing is essentially letting the world know they have an economic WMD in their possession. And it will go off if you do not give them everything they want, with no negotiation possible. That's the nature of today's GOP. It needs to be destroyed before it can recover.

It's insane that we've reached this point. To have a political party threaten national default if it doesn't get everything it wants is terrorism. It's what hostage takers do. I don't think the American people are taking this seriously enough. Want to know what happens when a country defaults on its debts? Chaos. Just looks at what happened to Latin America in the 80's. Or Mexico. Or Russia. Or Argentina. Bruce Bartlett better explains:  

Republicans are playing not just with fire, but the financial equivalent of nuclear weapons. Perhaps at one time when the federal debt was owned entirely by Americans we could afford to take a chance on debt default because the consequences would only be internal. But today, more than half of the privately held public debt is owed to foreigners; the Chinese alone own more than $1.1 trillion of Treasury securities. Moreover, many countries use Treasury securities as backing for their own currencies. Thus the impact of default would be felt internationally, disrupting finances and economic policies throughout Asia, Europe and Latin America.

Therefore, a potential debt default is far more than a domestic consideration; it is a matter of foreign policy. This is why Secretary of State Clinton and Navy Adm. Mike Mullen have warned that the public debt represents an important threat to national security. As attorney Thomas Geoghegan recently put it, “Where the validity of the debt is concerned, our national security is at stake.”

It's one thing to have a developing country default. It's another thing entirely when the largest, most interconnected economy in the world defaults. Perhaps we're numb to scare tactics. Or we just choose to look away as our bumbling politicians try to disarm a bomb that could kill all of us. I don't know. But luckily there is something Obama can do if Congress fails to act: Go over their heads.  Bartlett explains:

A more radical solution, Plan B, would be to simply disregard the debt limit altogether on constitutional grounds, an idea I suggested in The Fiscal Times on April 29. University of Baltimore law professor Garrett Epps made a similar suggestion in The Atlantic on May 4.

The essence of the argument involves section 4 of the Fourteenth Amendment to the Constitution, which reads: “The validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law, including debts incurred for payment of pensions and bounties for services in suppressing insurrection or rebellion, shall not be questioned.”

In my view and that of Prof. Epps, this means that the president would have constitutional authority to take extraordinary measures to protect the public credit and prevent a debt default even if it means disregarding the debt limit, which is statutory law subordinate to the Constitution.

Perhaps we can avoid this crisis after all. I see no other way. Until GOP leaders break and accept compromise on a deal that includes tax hikes AND spending cuts, which has a snowball's chance in hell at this point, there is no other way. Ultimately the responsibility lies with the American people. We elected these children and they aren't doing their jobs. So instead of complaining about it, its time to do something and actually vote them out of office. Until then nothing will get done. 

Portions of Gov. Deal's HB 87 Blocked

Loganville-Grayson, GA Patch

According to the civil action file, section 8 of the bill “authorizes Georgia law enforcement officers to investigate the immigration status of criminal suspects where the officer has probable cause to believe the suspect committed another criminal offense.”   

If an immigrant does not have proper documentation on him, the police officer would have been able to detain him and place him in jail, or report him to the Department of Homeland Security.   

That section was blocked.   

Additionally, section 7, which would penalize anyone “transporting, moving, concealing or harboring illegal aliens,” was blocked. A fine of up to $250,000 would have been imposed. 

You can read the civil suit in its entirety here.    

NPR

 "The defendants wildly exaggerate the scope of the federal crime of harboring under (the law) when they claim that the Plaintiffs are violating federal immigration law by giving rides to their friends and neighbors who are illegal aliens," he said. 

The judge was especially critical of that provision, blasting the state's assertion that federal immigration enforcement is "passive." Thrash noted that federal immigration officers remove more than 900 foreign citizens from the country on an average day. 

He also wrote that the state measure would overstep the enforcement boundaries established by federal law. Thrash noted that there are thousands of illegal immigrants in Georgia because of the "insatiable demand in decades gone by for cheap labor" in the agriculture and construction industries. But he said the federal government gives priority to prosecuting and removing illegal immigrants who have committed crimes.

 The entire bill, which goes into effect on July 1, hasn't been blocked just these portions. The section of the bill that makes it a felony to provide false information on a job application will still go into effect. Even still this is very positive news. I'm proud of U.S. District Judge Thomas Thrash Jr. for doing what is right and just. There still is a long road ahead however. If you want to help overturn HB 87 there will be protests on July 1st and 2nd. Not perfect, but I can't deny that this is great news for immigrants in the state of Georgia.

                                                                                                                                                

Cutting Off the Nose to Smite the Face

Crop Losses Could Top $1B - GPB

An agriculture industry group estimates a shortage of migrant labor may wind up costing Georgia fruit and vegetable farmers $300 million in crop losses. Officials worry the total economic impact will be even greater if crops from the next harvest are lost. 

The Georgia Agribusiness Council estimates the total loss stemming from spoiled and unpicked produce to be close to $1 billion.

Georgia is paying a high price for the near-sighted bigotry of its legislators. While the Republicans representing the suburbs around Atlanta and Augusta rode the immigrant hate-train long enough to pass House Bill 87, they completely ignored the engine that drives much of Georgia's economy: agriculture. Anyone who has ever driven through the state of Georgia knows that agriculture dominates much of the state. Being a resident of Georgia since 1998 I've learned this. Peanuts, Pecans, Peaches, Cotton, Timber, and Poultry are multi-million dollar industries in this state. For better or for worse, all of these industries are reliant on cheap immigrant labor; labor that is rapidly fleeing the state. Quickly realizing the bind he's created for farmers, Governor Nathan Deal is scrambling for solutions. He's ordered that probationers be sent out into the fields to pick crops; a plan that has failed miserably.

I'll never understand why our beloved legislature decided to pursue such an economically crippling bill during a time where Georgia faces 10% unemployment. Then again this is a state where in the year 2011, you still can't buy a can of beer or a bottle of wine on Sundays. It's the South, where the people have more disconnects than AT&T. I've grown accustomed to the backwardness of its politics. But when there's an issue like this that affects me directly, it gets irritating. As a result of this bill immigrants will flee the state, food prices will rise, farmers will struggle, and investment will look elsewhere, probably to more friendly states such as Florida. A state and region that has worked hard to escape its dark racial past is once again being dragged back into the darkness. It's up to the good people of Georgia, Alabama, Arizona and the rest of the United States to once again stand up for what's right, and force our leaders to do the right thing. Immigrants are people not aliens, and its time we start treating them like that.

Chinese Awakening?

Max Fisher - The Atlantic

Last week, riots broke out in Guangdong province, the country's most populous as well as its industrial base. Coastal, ethnic Han, and economically essential, Guangdong province matters for China. In the violence end ensuing crackdown, protesters burned out cars, ransacked shops, and rained bricks on police. CNN's Eunice Yoon, arriving here not long after the protesters, wrote, "for the first time since I started reporting in China years ago, workers approached us unfazed by our cameras. They were unafraid to vent their grievances to foreign TV journalists even as the police looked on." Police soon commanded her to leave.

What has worried me for sometime now is the example that China has set for the world. The fact that China has achieved extraordinary economic growth over the past thirty years while still maintaining an autocratic system has fascinated the world. Many columnists have even expressed envy at this model and have pondered why the American political system can't achieve the focus of the Chinese political system. I've always felt uneasy about these arguments because it undermines the virtue of democracy and fails to paint a complete picture. As an outsider looking in its easy to point to the cold, technocratic, one-party system that has successfully achieved break-neck economic growth and say it works. China indeed should be lauded for recovering from the backwardness under Mao to become the superpower they are today. They've transformed from a largely peasant agrarian society to a modern capitalist juggernaut in little over 50 years. 


But what doesn't get talked about is the fact that China leads the world in executions by a wide margin. Human rights abuses? Ignored. Lack of Labor standards? Overlooked even praised in some circles. Persecution of ethnic minorities such as Tibetans and Uighurs? Barely talked about. Total disregard for the environment? Not even on the radar. Outside of Fareed Zakaria, no one in the mainstream media brings up these issues. Only those that pay close attention know that China is basically recolonizing Africa. The American political system has its long list of faults, I'm not even going to go there, but its problems pale in comparison to China's. I would wager that there isn't a single American, Briton, German, Frenchman, or Canadian in their right minds that would trade their lives for that of a Chinese. 


It was widely believed that the acquiescence of the Chinese population was essentially bought in exchange for economic growth. But that assumption is quickly being debunked. Chinese citizens are increasingly taking to the streets to air out their grievances in the face of overwhelming force. It isn't clear how much the Arab Spring has influenced this "Chinese Summer"; but you'd have to be blind not to the connection. The Chinese government was afraid of this which is why it increased its electronic monitoring recently. Will this lead to meaningful political reforms or will it lead to another Tiananmen Square? No one knows. But its worth keeping an eye on going forward.

Equality At Last!

How New York Legalized Gay Marriage

With the stroke of a pen just before midnight on Friday, Governor Andrew Cuomo legalized gay marriage in New York, making the state the sixth and by far the largest to have a same-sex marriage law on the books. 

The victory is all the more remarkable because it comes just two years after gay marriage supporters badly miscalculated their support in the same chamber, watching their same-sex marriage bill go down by a 24-to-38 margin after a dramatic floor debate.

Bravo New York! New York becomes the largest state in the United States to pass a gay marriage bill. This is a seminal moment for LGBTQ rights in America and worldwide. This has been a long time coming for one of America's largest gay communities. After it was passed celebrations erupted in the streets of New York City. Including at the Stonewall Inn in Greenwich Village, an important landmark for the gay rights movement.

Repeating History

Pew Research: Record Support For Afghanistan Troop Withdrawl

For the first time since Pew Research began asking the question in 2008, a majority (56 percent) now say they want the U.S. to remove American troops from Afghanistan "as soon as possible," while 39 percent say they they want to leave troops "until the situation has stabilized." That result represents a reversal since last year, when leaving the troops in place was preferred by a majority of 53 percent to 40 percent.

With news that President Obama will be addressing the nation on Wednesday night about Afghanistan there is speculation out there that a troop withdrawal could be announced. Last week it was reported that the US State Department is talking directly with the Taliban, possibly seeking a peace deal. The 10 year old war is becoming increasingly unpopular with the American public. At best the war has become a stalemate, at worst a quagmire. The death of Osama Bin Laden last month has given the Obama Administration sufficient political cover to start discussing an accelerated drawdown of troops from Afghanistan. As reported in the Bob Woodward book Obama's Wars, Obama wants to withdraw from Afghanistan by the time he leaves office. He's keenly aware of what the Vietnam War did to Lyndon Johnson's legacy and desperately wants to avoid that same fate. There are certain factions within his administration, most notably the Pentagon and State Department, that are weary of a withdrawal. But with the retirement of Robert Gates as Secretary of Defense and the pending departure of Hillary Clinton as Secretary of State if Obama wins a second term; institutional resistance to a withdrawal won't nearly be as strong. 


My best guess is that we'll see a Vietnam-like peace deal that includes a withdrawal of a majority of NATO troops from the country. The moderate factions of the Taliban will allowed to participate in government in exchange for disarmament. I think we will still keep certain military bases open such as Bagram in order to keep an eye on neighboring Pakistan and for strategic reasons. I'd imagine that the CIA will also continue to have a large presence in the country so that the U.S. can continue to conduct Drone attacks along the border region. But of course convincing the Taliban to accept a peace deal can be a tall task. They've rejected previous overtures by the U.S. government for peace talks. It's hard for me to imagine that they would accept any deal where foreign troops remain in the country. My gut feeling on this is that by 2016 there won't be any U.S. troops in Afghanistan.

Amish Man Arrested For Sexting

A sign of the Apocalypse?

HuffPo:

William Yoder arrived to a Milford, Indiana restaurant via horse and buggy and was arrested for sending nearly 600 sexts, nude photos and explicit videos to the girl he planned to meet, per ABC News.

Do Ideas Really Matter Anymore?

I first heard about this story last night. I'm not sure if I'm refusing to believe that it happened, or wrestling with a gnawing feeling that I shouldn't be surprised at all.

I have a hard time believing it because, as this Atlantic online piece suggestions, Professor Juan Cole was never a serious threat to the Bush Administration. Now, let me admit that his book Engaging the Middle East is a favorite of mine, and I don't read his blog, Informed Comment, nearly enough. But public intellectuals and professors haven't had a serious impact on political life in the United States in far too long. Which is precisely the problem with our culture today.

People like Juan Cole, or before him Howard Zinn (as just one example), are largely marginalized. I do remember on the eve of the Iraq War watching Professor Zinn deplore the idea of invading Iraq, the very night Baghdad was first being attacked. I had the sense that, while this debate was on PBS, and he was being allowed to say what he wanted, that in the end it really didn't matter. The war was already starting.

When was the last time you saw someone like Noam Chomsky on television? A conservative voice like Andrew Bacevich gets on every once in a while, but not nearly enough. Our culture is too tied to "liberal" and "conservative" ideas that make sense in Washington, that require only minuscule understanding so that they make easy, ready to dispense talking points. The Bush Administration, worried about a professor? Why, when being a public intellectual today is so easily dismissed?

Richmond Fed Flys the Rainbow Flag, Religious Right Jumps the Shark

Richmond Times-Dispatch

In a letter to Richmond Fed President Jeffrey M. Lacker, Marshall says the homosexual behavior "celebrated" by the bank "undermines the American economy." 

"What does flying the homosexual flag, or any other similar display, have to do with your central banking mission under the Federal Reserve Act passed by Congress?" writes Marshall, one of the General Assembly's most conservative members.

Flying a Gay Pride flag over the Richmond Federal Reserve undermines the American economy? I hate to abuse the Picard facepalm but this was just too appropriate:

Pat Robertson -- pro-legalization?

A group of world leaders that included former UN secretary-general Kofi Annan and former chairman of the Fed Paul Volcker, called for a shift in the way the world approaches illegal drugs. It's the largest collection of world leaders to call for decriminalization to date. But perhaps the most interesting part of the article is this quote:

Yahoo! News

Christian talk show host Pat Robertson caused a stir in December when he endorsed on "The 700 Club" faith-based rehabilitation programs instead of jail time for drug use, and even appeared to support the legalization of marijuana. "I'm not exactly for the use of drugs, don't get me wrong," he said. "I just believe that criminalizing marijuana, criminalizing the possession of a few ounces of pot--that kind of thing--it's costing us a fortune and it's ruining young people."

Now I know we're at the end of days. Pat Robertson is pro-decriminalization? Did someone sneak him a pot brownie by accident? Perhaps the last key demographic in support of the War on Drugs has been evangelical Christians. Despite's Robertson's age his opinion carries a great deal of weight among evangelicals. It's one thing to have your run-of-the-mill hippies and libertarians criticizing the War on Drugs, it's another thing entirely to have right-wing evangelicals start criticizing it. I think its safe to say now that the tide is turning. With prisons overflowing, governments struggling to make payroll, and public opinion coming around; full-scale reform on this issue should happen on a national level within the next 10 years.

Not Good News for Obama or America

The economy just isn't improving like the President would like.

This certainly isn't good news for Presient Obama's re-election chances. If the economy isn't better by next November, 2012, he'll be in serious trouble.

Late 2008 saw considerable talk among liberals about that election being the newest "realignment" election, in the sense that American politics were making a fundamental shift from one political wing to the other. Plenty of examples abound, with historians still debating the merits of several of them being realignments (for a good discussion, look here). But that talk, it appears, was premature.

Then again, President Reagan was in trouble after 1982, and President Clinton was dead meat in January 1995. So, all one can say is that we have a very, very long election season ahead of us.