China and India: The Hare and the Tortoise?

New York Times: India Looks To China for inspiration....and with some fear.

No surprise here, India's comparing itself to that economic, political, and military giant to their north, the People's Republic of China. There's been quite a bit of talk in the last five years about India's remarkable growth and how it compares to the economic explosion in China that's taken place since the 1990s. The title for this particular blog post comes from a book, mentioned in the article, about the economic race between the two nations.


Some in the USA, wary of the rise of China and seeing a kindred democratic spirit in India, want to make the South Asian power into our newest ally in the region. Relations between our two countries were far too contentious during the Cold War, as India's non-alignment policy was seen by the USA as nothing more than a pro-Soviet posture. That became a reality after 1971, when Richard Nixon and Henry Kissinger decided to "tilt" the US towards Pakistan during their war with India, mainly to get their assistance in opening up relations with...wait for it...China.

I'm not sure if we'll be able to recruit India in a new coalition to contain future Chinese expansionism. With America's complicated relationship with Pakistan not getting any simpler, though, and with fears of China's rise, now may be the best time to take a step forward towards India. Allowing their Prime Minister of India to speak before Congress several times in the last 15 years was a token of genuine friendship, not given often.

Of course, India has its own interests, and they're also still smarting over the disastrous 1962 war with China. They know they aren't strong enough yet to assert their dominance beyond South Asia. But when that day comes (and I think it will), Asia's going to get even more interesting. I didn't even mention Russia, Japan, and the two Koreas. But it gives an even deeper impression that the 21st century will be the Asian Century, whereas the 20th century was the American Century. Of course, we have a long way to go yet.

--Robert Greene II

Tent City Movement Grows in Israel

Tent City Grows - The Dish

Add up the estimates of 300,000 in Tel Aviv and 30,000 in Jerusalem and more elsewhere and you come to this startling idea: one out of every 20 Israelis was on the streets demanding a better country Saturday night – the equivalent of three million people in France, four million in Egypt, 15 million in the United States. And those comparisons themselves shatter, because, as Ma’ariv’s NRG site reported, the police couldn’t possibly keep track of the crowd that broke down gates and overflowed into alleys and side streets. Or as a police source told the paper: “This is the biggest demonstration we’ve ever, ever faced. We’re seeing hundreds of cars that have simply been left on the Ayalon Freeway and people are walking to the demonstration.” And that’s besides the people who couldn’t get on the overpacked trains to Tel Aviv.

This is kind of a complex issue but I'll try and simplify it the best that I can. Basically, there is a housing "shortage" in Israel and to steal a phrase from Jimmy McMillan: "The rent is too damn high!" Israelis have taken to the streets in protest of the sky-rocketing cost of living. With cities like Tel Aviv unwilling to take on more density and build upwards and the desert being uninhabitable, that leaves only one other option: settlements. As Matt Yglesias explains this puts pressure on the Israeli government to expand settlements into the Palestinian territories. Of course this adds yet another complex dimension to a conflict with no foreseeable end in sight. 

As it turns out, Bribery does work

Bribery Got Bin Laden - The Dish

Forget the cover story of waterboarding-leads-to-courier-leads-to bin Laden...Sources in the intelligence community tell me that after years of trying and one bureaucratically insane near-miss in Yemen, the US government killed OBL because a Pakistani intelligence officer came forward to collect the approximately $25 million reward from the State Department's Rewards for Justice program.

Turns out that it wasn't torture that lead to Bin Laden, it was bribery. Someone within Pakistani intelligence stepped forward to collect the $25 million bounty of OBL's head. Of course I doubt this bit of fact will ever penetrate the wall of lies the right-wing so skillfully hides behind. But politics aside, the bigger point however is that if it was indeed a Pakistani intelligence officer that told us of OBL's whereabouts it confirms what many of us have already suspected. That high-level members of the Pakistani Government knew Bin Laden was there and were protecting him. It's no longer an issue of "did they know?" as much as it is "how much did they know?"

Mexican Migration North Sputters to a Trickle

For all this talk about illegal immigration the media has overlooked one glaring fact. The New York Times explains:

Douglas S. Massey, co-director of the Mexican Migration Project at Princeton, an extensive, long-term survey in Mexican emigration hubs, said his research showed that interest in heading to the United States for the first time had fallen to its lowest level since at least the 1950s. “No one wants to hear it, but the flow has already stopped,” Mr. Massey said, referring to illegal traffic. “For the first time in 60 years, the net traffic has gone to zero and is probably a little bit negative.” 

The decline in illegal immigration, from a country responsible for roughly 6 of every 10 illegal immigrants in the United States, is stark. The Mexican census recently discovered four million more people in Mexico than had been projected, which officials attributed to a sharp decline in emigration.

What is this decrease attributed too? 

 In simple terms, Mexican families are smaller than they had once been. The pool of likely migrants is shrinking. Despite the dominance of the Roman Catholic Church in Mexico, birth control efforts have pushed down the fertility rate to about 2 children per woman from 6.8 in 1970, according to government figures. So while Mexico added about one million new potential job seekers annually in the 1990s, since 2007 that figure has fallen to an average of 800,000, according to government birth records. By 2030, it is expected to drop to 300,000.

And...

A significant expansion of legal immigration — aided by American consular officials — is also under way. Congress may be debating immigration reform, but in Mexico, visas without a Congressionally mandated cap on how many people can enter have increased from 2006 to 2010, compared with the previous five years. 

State Department figures show that Mexicans who have become American citizens have legally brought in 64 percent more immediate relatives, 220,500 from 2006 through 2010, compared with the figures for the previous five years. Tourist visas are also being granted at higher rates of around 89 percent, up from 67 percent, while American farmers have legally hired 75 percent more temporary workers since 2006.

AND...

 Still, education represents the most meaningful change. The census shows that throughout Jalisco, the number of senior high schools or preparatory schools for students aged 15 to 18 increased to 724 in 2009, from 360 in 2000, far outpacing population growth. The Technological Institute of Arandas, where Angel studies engineering, is now one of 13 science campuses created in Jalisco since 2000 — a major reason professionals in the state, with a bachelor’s degree or higher, also more than doubled to 821,983 in 2010, up from 405,415 in 2000.

While stories Mexican Cartels and illegal immigration laws have dominated our headlines, Mexico has quietly improving. Our net migration rate from Mexico has hit zero. Immigration is at its lowest levels since 1950. Part of this is due to our recession but a large part of it is due to the improving situation in Mexico. Educational opportunities are expanding, infrastructure has improved, and jobs are being created. Imagine that? Investing in infrastructure and education helping the economy? Anyways, I digress. Conversely, the cost of being smuggled across the border has more than tripled in last 15 years. The violence at the border is actually preventing immigration north. Increased security along the Texas and California borders has forced immigrants to take the more dangerous Arizona route. Its not longer worth it to cross the border. If and when Mexico gets the security situation under control, they might finally be ready to make that giant leap forward.